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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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