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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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