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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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