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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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