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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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