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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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