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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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