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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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