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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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