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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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