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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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