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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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