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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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