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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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