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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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