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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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