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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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