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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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