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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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