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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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