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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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