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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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