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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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