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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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