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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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