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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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