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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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