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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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