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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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