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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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