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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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