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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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