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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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