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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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