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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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