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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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