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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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