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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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