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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
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Showing 1021 to 1025 news of total 6871 |
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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