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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
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Showing 1021 to 1025 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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