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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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