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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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Showing 1016 to 1020 news of total 6871 |
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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