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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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