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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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