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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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