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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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