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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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