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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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