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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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