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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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