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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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