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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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