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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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