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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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