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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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