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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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