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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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