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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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