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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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