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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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