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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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