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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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