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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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