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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
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Showing 926 to 930 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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