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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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