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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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