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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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