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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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