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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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