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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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