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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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