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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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