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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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