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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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