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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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