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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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