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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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