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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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