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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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