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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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