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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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