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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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