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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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