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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
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