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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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