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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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