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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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