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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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